When a bad thing happens to a good theory

There was a presidential election in Peru this weekend. If you didn't know that you are forgiven. The little chance there would be American press coverage of a Peruvian election disappeared when the wrong guy won.

Well actually, the right guy won. The guy who lost had not-so long ago tried to take power by a military coup -- which often suggests a less-than serious commitment to good governance. The loser was also aligned with Venezuelan supreme leader Hugo Chavez, and favored the type of leftist wealth distribution that we've been hearing is poised to make a comeback in the region.

There's a theory going about that we are losing Latin America to the Chavez's and Castro's because we aren't paying enough attention to Latin America's fledgling free markets or to Latin America in general. It was just yesterday the New York Times Magazine published a piece about how Mexico could be going the way of Chavez and Venezuela.

It is true that a Chavez-backed candidate recently gained power in Bolivia, but the right-leaning, pro-American President of Columbia was re-elected in a landslide last week, and now this.

What makes Garcia's victory in Peru even more interesting (and improbable) was he already had a run at the presidency between 85-90. It didn't go well. Most Americans wouldn't know Peru from Paraguay but they've probably heard of "hyper inflation" and "The Shining Path." Garcia's presidency was marked by a tragic inability to control either. It got so bad the Peruvians elected a Japanese citizen as their next president.

Yet Garcia (who can apparently spin quite a stemwinder) easily won '06 when Peru was faced with the Chavez-approved alternative.

What does this mean? It's hard to tell, and I certainly don't take it as a Latin American-wide re-endorsement of capitalism and the United States.

But it's time to put to rest the theory that we are losing Latin America to Chavez and his ilk because of neglect or mismanagement. Different candidates with different ideologies and different personalities win different elections in different countries for different reasons -- and most of them have nothing to do with the United States and what we do or don't do.

Update: Finally, an article about the election. Peru Election Won't End Chavez Influence it says. Rage, rage against the dying of the light.