Week 17 picks

9-7 last week, 121-121-16 for the year. Since I don't actually wager money, and my only goal here is to beat Vegas and finish over .500, week 17 is for all the marbles. This is an especially difficult week to handicap because only four teams are playing for anything. Meaning nobody has the slightest clue what players will be playing and for how long. I'm that clueless every week, so it should work to my advantage.

NEW ENGLAND at Giants (+14) After the game Bill Belichick will celebrate his team's undefeated season by eating scrambled California Condor eggs out of a bowl made from the skull of a Pygmy tribesmen. Tom Brady will be off with some model, but wishing he was instead eating condor eggs out of the skull of a Pygmy tribesmen.

Buffalo at PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) Big game for McNabb, for if the Eagles finish 8-8 in a season full of injuries and fluky what-could-have-been loses, it will make it very difficult for them to jettison their long-time, oft-injury, but only 31-years old quarterback.

SAN FRANSISCO at Cleveland (-10.5) It's too bad they shot that tiger because the 49ers could have really used her. If nothing else to block kicks, but does anybody really think the tiger would be that worse a QB than Alex Smith?

DETROIT at Green Bay (-4) Since I don't mind tooting my own horn, I have to point out that early in the season I envisioned a scenario in which Brett Favre and John McCain each stage improbable comebacks. With the playoffs and the primaries starting next week, I think it's safe to say both stubborn over-the-hill press-favorites have put themselves in the right position to shock the world.

Carolina at TAMPA BAY (+3) Did you know the Panthers are the first team in NFL history to win with four different starting QB's? Even more impressive considering they only have six wins overall.

CINCINNATI at Miami (+2.5) Credible-seeming reports suggest that Bill Parcells is considering Charlie Weis for the Dolphins' head coaching job. That is if that "Brownie" guy isn't available.

JACKSONVILLE at Houston (-7) With ten sacks in his last six games, it would have been a good year for the much-maligned Mario Williams no matter what. But Reggie Bush and Vince Young's struggles have made it even sweeter for Williams and the Texan's front office.

SEATTLE at Atlanta (-1) It's nice to see the Falcons didn't let the Michael Vick distraction ruin their season.

NEW ORLEANS at Chicago (+2) The Bears and Saints go from conference title participants to punchless also-rans in the span of a year. Life in the unsettled NFC.

DALLAS at Washington (-9) This game will be determined by how much the Cowboys want to knock their bitter rivals out of the playoffs. I'm thinking with Terry Glenn's return and a bye week coming up, Dallas will have a bit of fight in them.

PITTSBURGH at Baltimore (+4) I guess, to be the most disappointing team of the year, you have had to have been considered good at one point. So Brian Billick's ego still has that going for it.

MINNESOTA at Denver (+3) I keep getting this feeling John Edwards and his booby trapped campaign is going to pull an Iowa upset.

SAN DIEGO at Oakland (+8) With Mischa Barton getting popped for DUI yesterday, I think 2007 has been the year NFL players ceded their "most legally challenged bold facers" crown to the waifish celebutantes.

St. Louis at ARIZONA (-6) Expect some sort of Leinart/Warner QB controversy fun in '08.

Kansas City at JETS (-6) All things considered, the worst game of the season.

Tennessee at INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5) Since Indy will be resting most of their offensive starters I do think Tennessee will prevail and grab the AFC's last playoff spot. But since the Titans struggle to even score 7 points on the road, I can't in good conscious pick them to cover.

Week 12 Wrap

LaDainian Tomlinson, famously modest by modern NFL standards, barely celebrates his touchdowns. But he scores them at an unprecedented clip and two weeks ago Tomlinson, who has 21 TDs in his last seven games, entered the NFL record books with his 100th touchdown in his 88th game, breaking the fastest-to-hundred mark of 93 shared by Emmitt Smith and Jim Brown.

That touchdown figure doesn't include the five touchdown passes Tomlinson has thrown in the last two years. Continuing his end zone efficiency, it only took LT seven attempts to net those touchdowns -- a feat that calls into question why more teams that run sweeps don't employ the halfback option.

More than just a touchdown machine, Tomlinson has been close to the league lead in rushing yardage and receptions by a running back in each of his six years. Because of these accomplishments Tomlinson's name has been added to the greatest running back of all-time debate.

LT is 27 this year. 26 or 27 tends to be the statistical peak for running backs: Brown, Smith, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Tony Dorsett, Franco Harris, Marcus Allen and double-murderer OJ Simpson all had their best season at that age and then began steady, sometimes shift, declines. Walter Payton and Barry Sanders are the two notable exceptions, peaking later in their twenties. The mid-twenties decline of Hall of Famers' Eric Dickerson and Earl Campbell were such that their peak was also a cliff.

If LT is able to have four more fairly productive seasons it stands to reason he will enter the top five of all-time in rushing yards and could threaten Emmit Smith's rushing touchdown record. History shows LT has about a fifty/fifty chance of getting those four productive years.

Since I can't claim to have studied all the great running backs on film, I can only go by statistics and team accomplishments when determining the greatest. By that criteria the two running backs Tomlinson recently bumped from the record books stand a head above the rest. To catch Smith and Brown, Tomlinson would also have to add a Superbowl victory to his resume.

That's a tall order, even for a good young team like San Diego. Still, there should be no debate the quiet LT has, over the past month, snuck up on everyone to enter the all-time argument.


Picks: This is the week JT starts sneaking up on .500. 10-5-1 for the week, 73-81-5 for the year.

The lord giveth and the lord taketh away

This clip is 12 years old and has been all over the web today, but anyone who hasn't seen it is missing out on perhaps the most exciting three minutes in the history of organized football.

More importantly, it provides a peak into the underexposed world of the high school football television announcer. They are an excitable and incontinent lot, it turns out.

Week 10 picks

HOUSTON at Jacksonville (-11) If Rutgers is able to go into Morgantown and defeat West Virginia, they need to get a shot at the National Championship. If you find yourself disagreeing you probably hate America.

BALTIMORE at Tennessee (+7) The truth is, these kind of controversies are great for college football. It there was a playoff system college football would be even more boring than it is now.

Washington at PHILADELPHIA (-7) A Philly loss here, and Eagle fans get to spend the rest of the season hoping T.O. continues to blow games for the Cowboys.

San Fransisco at DETROIT (+6) "49ers" will be awkward if the franchise decides to leave the Bay Area. Although it did work out for the "Lakers."

SAN DIEGO at Cincinnati (+1.5) I usually get my election night coverage from Chris Mathews. Sure, he spends most of the time enthusiastically quoting himself, but he happens to know a lot about politics and elections. Unfortunately his pairing with fellow big-mouth Keith Olbermann almost made my head explode. I have gained a lot of respect for Dan Patrick.

Jets at NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) So MSNBC was out, and I was flipping between CNN and Fox. They couldn't be more different -- and it's not what you think. CNN broadcasts from a futuristic, airplane hanger sized, flat screen TV showroom, while Fox broadcasts from a draped table. None of the graphics Fox used would have been out of place in 1985. Which made it all the more striking when none of them worked properly.

KANSAS CITY at Miami (Even) Yet Fox's coverage was far more watchable than CNN's. The waves of commentators CNN had in their airplane hanger just cluttered things. It was like that gag in the Naked Gun when, during the baseball game, the play-by-play guy introduces his booth and he keeps going and going until you see he has ten people sitting next to him. Fox had a few commentators who knew their stuff and, unlike CNN, Fox didn't use election day as an opportunity to promote their regular talent. Although their coverage was, at times, a little glum.

GREEN BAY at Minnesota (-5.5) Now that Brett Favre is officially good again, all those who write comedic-inclined football picks are suffering.

CLEVELAND at Atlanta (-8) Luckily Michael Vick is back to being bad.

Buffalo at INDIANAPOLIS (-12) When a non A-list celebrity -- Kevin Fenderline and Ryan Phillipe recently -- gets dumped by his higher profile wife or girlfriend, it makes me think of Peyton Manning. I'm not sure why.

DENVER at Oakland (+9) The Raiders even screw up their knee-to-the-groin cheap shots.

NEW ORLEANS at Pittsburgh (-5) Bigger disaster: Katrina or Roethlisberger?

St. Louis at SEATTLE (-3) God is just not that into the slow-healing Shaun Alexander.

DALLAS at Arizona (+7) With Rumsfeld out, the seat gets a little hotter for Denny Green.

Chicago at GIANTS (even) It's really too late, and I doubt she's reading, but Maureen Dowd needs to learn the name is Rumsfeld. See, it's OK that I refereed to Arizona Cardinal head Coach Dennis Green as "Denny" once, on my blog. It's not OK (for her credibility) that Dowd called Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld "Rummy" a couple thousand times on the pages of the paper of record.

Tampa Bay at CAROLINA (-9) Writing this, I realized how much I appreciate the bye weeks.

Week 2 wrap

After the Eagles stunning collapse against the Giants, Eagles coach Andy Reid took full responsibility for his team's loss. This wasn't a case of a veteran coach covering for his players -- Reid's decision to shrink the playbook and slow down the Eagles' highly effective West Coast offense in the middle of the third quarter was what cost the birds the game.

Yesterday, still reeling from the loss, I foolishly subjected myself to a bunch of the Monday Morning Quarterback shows. The Eagles-Giants game was the first topic of discussion and a few analysts trotted out the old you-can't-be-a-Super-Bowl-contender-without-an-effective-power-running-game bugaboo in reference to the Eagles' inability to run out the clock.

Let's forget two of the Eagles' late game possessions ended on badly dropped passes and a third on a fumble by a running back who had put the ball on the carpet exactly once in the previous three years and acknowledge, generally, the Eagles ability to run between the tackles is average at best. Does that really prevent them from being contenders?

Or is it one of those sports axioms-- like the team with the superior starting pitching wins the playoff series -- that is always true until it's false.

I'm not sure if it even reaches that standard. Of course it's nice to have a power running game. Just like it helps to have very good quarterback and an upper echelon defense-- two other attributes a Super Bowl contender "needs."

And if your team has all three and isn't led by Peyton Manning you will have a great chance of winning it all.

But recent history shows two out of three ain't bad. One just has to look at the Patriot dynasty. They won 2001 with a rookie quarterback who certainly came into his own in the Super Bowl, but was far from dominant before that. They took the title in 2003 without a 650 -- let alone 1000 -- yard rusher. In 2004 they were firing on all cylinders and still barely beat an Eagles team that ranked close to last in the league in rushing.

Maybe the lesson of the Patriot's success is that having a great coach is key to winning a Super Bowl. I can only hope Andy Reid -- generally one of the better coaches in the NFL -- hasn't decided this is the year to try to prove that one wrong.


Picks -- I finished 10 - 6 against the spread last week. Not bad for my first time out. Although there were a lot of clear mismatches and all those favorites covered, so it was probably a profitable week for gamblers and a bad one for Vegas. I'm sure they'll make up for it.

Snap judgment: The New MNF Team

After thirty-six years, Monday Night Football has departed Disney's ABC flagship for its cable network, ESPN. A complete revamp of the broadcast booth accompanied the transition.

Most of the focus has been on the new color commentator -- television, radio and newspaper personality Tony Kornheiser -- but Mike Tirico and Joe Theismann were also added to football's most venerable night.

Tirico is best known for his PGA play-by-play and sexual harassment. Theismann is best known for being hated by everyone including, improbably, fans in the Washington DC area where Theismann once led the local Redskins to their first Super Bowl title.

When the new booth was announced I was concerned neither Theismann nor Tirico had what it takes to be Kornheiser's prime time Wilbon, and the whole enterprise was going to sink in a Dennis Miller-like debacle.

I watched last night's pre-season match up between the Oakland Raiders and Minnesota Vikings with my eyes and ears nervously on the nascent broadcast team.

The three eased my mind by handling the opening like they had been doing it for thirty-six years. Their remarks were prepared and smooth. My sole complaint was Kornheiser's bad posture. A few times part of his head swayed out of the picture.

It was mostly Tirico for the couple of possessions because when the line-ups are being announced there isn't much opportunity for the analyst and color guy to jump in.

Monday night's new play-by-play man is inoffensive and stays on top of things. My only qualm is his golf voice might lack the animation needed for football. It would be advisable for ESPN to place a female intern in Tirico's sight line and then make her bend over and pick things up during big plays and touchdowns.

Kornheiser and Theismann joined the fray during the third possession. Despite a couple of superfluous flubs, Tony was on-point and every bit the wit he was expected to be.

I have to admit, Theismann's analysis was thoughtful and delivered concisely. Maybe it was because the Monday night venue reminded me of a prime-time match-up twenty-one years ago when Lawrence Taylor snapped Theismann's leg in half and ended his annoying career, but Theismann's skills in the booth rated a pleasant surprise.

Theismann and Kornheiser engaged in a couple of well-paced, informative debates. At times they almost seemed practiced. Although, if that's the worst criticism of their first-time on-air chemistry I'd say they are ahead of the curve.

While it was only a pre-season game and I only watched the first quarter, as long as Kornheiser didn't fall asleep in the second half -- as he had threatened to do -- their debut was a success.

Monday Night Football is no longer terrestrial-grade but it should continue to be must-see TV.