What to look for tonight

After six weeks of polling and in-depth analysis the likes of which a Pennsylvania primary has never seen, we can finally say with a high degree of certainty that tonight one of these five scenarios will go down:

Obama wins. After crying for the camera, Hillary pummels now secret adviser Mark Penn with a hard cover copy of "Microtrends" A red-faced Bill Clinton thrusts his pointed finger at a group of reporters. Somebody loses an eye.

Clinton wins by between zero and five. Obama "brushes" it off by telling supporters not to worry because it "ain't no thing." Television executives from Charlotte to Terre Haute to Portland wonder if such a margin will allow for the campaign to continue long enough to finance their new kitchens.

Clinton wins by between five and ten. Looking towards Indiana, Hillary gets lost in an analogy comparing herself to Notre Dame football underdog "Rudy" Ruettiger and claims she once played halfback for the Fighting Irish. She then takes a swig from a handle of Jack Daniels and shoots a 12-point buck.

Clinton wins by between ten and fifteen. Veteran right-wing TV pundit Pat Buchanan refers to Hillary Clinton as "one tough gal." College campuses everywhere erupt in angry blogging. From his well air-conditioned straight talk bus, John McCain rubs his hands together and thinks about White House drapes.

Clinton wins by more than fifteen. Howard Dean tries to scream, but no sound comes out. Obama dismisses elections as "the kind of old politics which have made our nation cynical." From his well air-conditioned Tennessee mansion, Al Gore rubs his hands together and thinks about White House drapes.

Clintons N Things

Rudy can fail and will do so meekly

With a less energized base than the Democrats, and no circus of race and gender, the Republican primary has been flying under the radar for the last couple months. Tonight the GOP will finally come center stage, as the contest in Florida will go a long way towards determining if John McCain or Mitt Romney will represent the Republicans in 2008.

Right now Florida is as close as can be. With at least a half-a-million votes already cast in early voting, I give a slight edge to McCain, who was in the lead a week ago. But one thing is certain: Tonight will spell the end of Rudy Giuliani's bid for the White House. After he finishes a distant third at best, the former New York mayor will drop out of the race.

While Giuliani will be criticized for his plan to forgo the early primaries and begin his campaign in Florida, this radical strategy was not what did him in. In fact, with the way the early states shook out, the plan could have very well worked.

Giuliani trails in Florida not because he didn't compete in South Carolina, but because instead of being the firebrand people expected -- the one who would either rip the heart out Islamic terrorism or trample the Constitution while wearing a dress -- Rudy turned out to be unenthusiastic and ineffective campaigner.

Without the entourage of cops and officials who usually stood behind him during his days of running New York city from behind a lectern, Giuliani looked meek and small. His campaign speeches and debate performances were thoughtful -- almost wonkish -- but way too low key. Not just for a guy who had reputation for having and conjuring such strong opinions, but for anyone running for an office higher than president of the 4-H club.

As Giuliani returns to his life of consulting fees and social climbing cougars, the campaign loses what was once projected to have been its primary source of polarizing crazy. Luckily for media outlets across the spectrum Bill Clinton has jumped in to fill that vital role, and the man who never really showed up will barely be missed.

Idle threat of the week

This week the panel of judges who choose Idle Threat of the Week were faced with a bit of a quandary. There is no question Bill Clinton's binge of red-faced, finger wagging barely coded race baiting constituted a threat of sorts. And there is no question the week ended with his wife Hillary -- still technically the one running for President -- receiving a rebuke from South Carolina voters far stronger than the polls and pundits had predicted.

Yet questions linger. Obviously Bill and Hillary have a more complicated relationship than the typical husband and wife. Raising the possibility that Bill is, subconsciously or otherwise, trying to torpedo his spouses run for the office he held to mixed reviews for eight years.

Some will say Bill's strategy of pushing Barack Obama into an electoral ghetto of black voters, suspiciously idealistic young and upperclass white voters, and the diminishing returns of the Kennedy clan is smart -- if brutal -- strategy. But Bill Clinton, who has been hailed as the political mind of his generation, should surely know this was going to probably happen regardless of anything he said or did. So why burn the Clinton name into such an ugly tactic?

Whatever the reason it is clear Bill Clinton's surprising and seemingly uncontrollable rage has led to the impression he might not know what noises his mouth makes, or who exactly is he trying to threaten. Which is why the race for Idle Threat of The Week for January 21st to 27th has been called for the 42nd President.

Mitt Romney who, stunningly, now has a puncher's chance to be the next President of the United States, scored points this week by joking that Americans would probably recoil at the thought of Bill Clinton back in the White House with nothing to do. This American is here to report having Bill on the campaign trail with nothing to do is nothing but entertaining and revealing.

Crying in baseball, politics

There was much talk and speculation yesterday about Hillary Clinton getting a tad teary-eyed when she provided a seemingly heartfelt answer to the question "how do you do it." ("It" being soldiering on amid brutal press and what could become one of the more spectacular electoral collapses of all-time.)

While I wouldn't quite call what Clinton did "crying," -- it was more like the kind of brief voice cracking emotion both the current President and Hillary's former-President husband display from time to time -- her paltry water-works probably do loom larger because she is a woman, and because crying during primary season has traditionally been a no-no for candidates of any gender.

Equally embattled Roger Clemens was also forced to defend himself yesterday. Instead of taking Hillary's earnest approach, the right-hander did so with the humility and subtly of a 98-mile-an-hour brush back pitch. So blind was his press-conference fury that he was forced to admit he hadn't heard a question because he thought it was directed at his lawyer -- who happened to be standing right next to him.

Clemens seethed as he offered indignant denials and made threats, some more veiled than others. Not only did Clemens do a poor job combating the charge he took steroids during his playing days, he ended up giving the impression he also shoots them before he does press conferences.

If Clemens had slowed down and got calm and misty-eyed when he talked about all the "kids" he mentors to stay away from from the very substance he stands accused of taking, it still wouldn't have immediately convinced anyone of a grand conspiracy against the would-be Hall of Famer. But it couldn't have gone any worse than the all-out heavy-handed approach he took instead.

And while Clemens should get a little sadder, it would serve Hillary's purpose if she got a little madder. Unfortunately her husband has beat her to the anger punch, offering up at a New Hampshire event today this seething screed on the Obama "fairy tale" and an unfair press.

Really, nobody knows what the rules are concerning crying in politics or baseball. But it's a safe bet that you aren't going to get very far having your spouse stand up for you, with either tears or rage.


* Speaking of Clemens, this fake confession video is top notch.

Clinton baiting season is upon us

It is now being widely reported Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign forced GQ to kill a "negative" story on the New York Senator by threatening the magazine's access to her well-known hubby Bill.

And Hillary hasn't been the only Clinton mixing threats with family of late. Bill also gave it a go, making clear he would respond with "all options available" unless a Manhattan eatery take down a photo of daughter Chelsea posing with the owner. For the past five years the photo in question has hung, along with similar shots of Derek Jeter, Regis Philbin and Rudy Giuliani, in the restaurant's front window.

Why Bill and Chelsea want the photo down now is unclear. (A bad experience with the restaurant? Owner is republican contributor? Plastic surgery?)

What has always been clear is that Hillary Clinton's famous family would be a factor -- one way or the other -- in '08. But so far, it really hasn't been.

After such forceful displays of solidarity and sensitivity . . . Let the games begin.

The world according to Stephen Baldwin

It's tough being Stephen Baldwin. Brother Alec has the talent and the psychotic rage, brother Billy has the mysterious aura and the smarmy good looks, and brother Danial brings a long rap sheet and a sweet tooth to the table. So what does that leave for Stephen -- besides the Pauly Shore-collaborations and the adult skateboarding habit?

Well, it looks like America's perpetual little brother, who turned 40 this year, has finally found his calling.

Stephen's latest project is promoting his own intoxicating blend of extreme sports and Jesus Christ through a skateboarding tour and a new book. He recently gave a colorful interview to Radar Magazine on being born Baldwin, born again and praying for Tom Cruise.

I have summarized the highlights:

* Stephen can't identify any of the seven deadly sins. Not only that, he gets wobbly on "sloth's" status as a proper word. Luckily he carries a dictionary to aid him in these potentially awkward situations.

* Admits to beating his children for not knowing their Ten Commandants yet he, himself, can only get to six.

* Unprompted, he compares being born again favorably to an "eight-ball of blow." Longs for a way to combine them.

* Would like to give Tom Cruise a "spicy roll of Jesus."

* Alec is not so good to speak to about politics -- but quite apt in discussing fart.

* Finds Howard Dean "frightening." (All right, that's not so weird.)

* Mel Gibson and Bono will be going to Heaven. Pauly Shore and Bill Clinton will be going to Hell. Alec goes to Heaven, but only because he can beat Stephen up.

So there you have it: Somebody has finally provided a good explanation as to why Alec Baldwin is such a hard-charging, bloviating ball of madness -- the man is actually trying to intimidate his way through the Pearly Gates.

Not sure if that works, but it does make everything clearer.

Great moments in fund-raising

As Israel vows to continue its offensive until its kidnapped soldiers are returned and Hezbollah vacates southern Lebanon, the region and the world prepare for more heavy military activity in the Holy Land.

Israel has an ace-in-the-hole. If the fighting escalates they know they can turn to a certain former president. Not as a negotiator or broker of peace -- like many before him Bill Clinton has tried and failed in that role -- but as an IDF grunt.

President Clinton said in 2002:

"The Israelis know that if the Iraqi or the Iranian army came across the Jordan River, I would personally grab a rifle, get in a ditch, and fight and die."

Of course, Bill Clinton wouldn't really pick up a rifle if Iran joined the fray -- his cardiologist would never allow it.

But seriously, both news reports I could find about his speech to a Jewish group in Toronto claim the crowd stood and cheered wildly in response to Clinton's bold declaration.

This is testament to what a rousing speaker Clinton must be. I would have imagined it would have gone more like this:

The crowd instinctively rises, when it is reveled such a great and powerful man shares their passion and concern. During their ascent they are overcome with laughter, as they realize the absurdity of what they have just heard. By the time they reach the standing position there is only the stunned silence of shock and awe.

It is then I like to think Clinton cracked a joke involving checkbooks.